Drone Swarm Batters Ukraine Mid-Talks

As U.S.-brokered peace talks grind forward, Russia keeps raining drones on Ukraine—while Iran signals it still wants negotiations on its terms.

Quick Take

Ukraine and Russia ended a second day of talks in Abu Dhabi with a prisoner exchange deal, but no ceasefire agreement.
Russia continued major strikes during the negotiations, including a wave of 183 attack drones reported on Thursday.
Key sticking points remain Donetsk territorial demands and control of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant.
U.S.-Iran talks are scheduled for Feb. 6 in Oman after brief uncertainty, with a major dispute over whether missiles are on the agenda.

Abu Dhabi Talks Produce a POW Swap, Not a Ceasefire

Ukrainian and Russian delegations concluded a second day of U.S.-brokered peace talks in Abu Dhabi on Thursday, Feb. 5, 2026, and announced a prisoner exchange agreement. The deal covers 314 prisoners of war, described as the first such exchange in five months, with reports indicating 157 prisoners returned to each side and three civilians from Russia’s Kursk region returned to Russia. Both sides publicly described the talks as productive, but the central question—stopping the shooting—remained unresolved.

U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff framed the prisoner swap as proof that sustained diplomacy can deliver tangible outcomes even in a grinding war. Ukraine’s lead negotiator Rustem Umerov emphasized “concrete steps and practical solutions,” a sign Kyiv may be prioritizing achievable humanitarian measures while core political disputes stay stuck. Russia’s envoy Kirill Dmitriev also claimed “progress,” while signaling interest in restoring U.S.-Russia relations—a separate track that could become leverage, or a distraction, depending on what Moscow demands in return.

Russia Keeps Military Pressure On While Negotiating

Russia’s posture underlined a blunt reality: the war does not pause for conferences. Reports said Russia launched major air strikes overnight Tuesday, followed by smaller drone attacks Wednesday and Thursday. On Thursday alone, Russian forces reportedly deployed 183 attack drones, about 110 of them Shaheds. Fighting continues along roughly a 1,200-kilometer front, with the fiercest battles in eastern Donetsk. The combination of talks and strikes suggests Moscow is trying to bargain with momentum, not compromise.

The unresolved issues are not technical—they are existential. Moscow is demanding Ukraine withdraw troops from all of Donetsk, including heavily fortified cities, while Ukraine is pushing to freeze the conflict along current front lines. Another flashpoint is the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, Europe’s largest, located in Russian-controlled territory. Ukraine wants control restored, while Russia insists it remain under Russian control but has indicated openness to international cooperation. With these positions so far apart, the POW swap looks like progress, but also like a ceiling on what’s currently achievable.

War Numbers Explain Why Small Deals Matter

The scale of losses helps explain why negotiators chase incremental agreements. Reuters reporting carried figures showing the human cost is staggering: President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said roughly 55,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed in battle, while the Center for Strategic and International Studies estimated Russia suffered nearly 1.2 million casualties. Russia has dismissed that estimate as unreliable, underscoring the fog that surrounds wartime accounting. Even with disputed numbers, the underlying point is clear—this is a long, punishing conflict with no easy off-ramp.

Oman Talks Put Iran’s Missiles at the Center of the Fight

Iran and the United States are expected to meet in Oman on Feb. 6 after a brief wobble earlier in the week raised fears the talks could collapse over disputes about format and location. The major clash now is the agenda: Washington wants the missile program included, while Tehran insists negotiations stay limited to nuclear issues. That disagreement matters because missiles and regional proxy activity are how Iran projects power, threatens neighbors, and pressures shipping lanes that affect global energy prices.

Reports also flagged uncertainty around Iranian “contingency planning” claims published by a pro-regime outlet, describing a multi-stage concept for escalating pressure against U.S. forces and allies and disrupting the global economy. The research itself notes a limitation: the plan’s details trace back to a single pro-regime source, making it difficult to judge whether it reflects actual operational intent or propaganda. Still, the Trump administration’s insistence on broader talks reflects a basic negotiating problem—if missiles are off-limits, any nuclear-only deal may leave key threats untouched.