Joe Biden Approved Guidance on Nuclear Strategy This Year

Joe Biden Approved Guidance on Nuclear Strategy This Year

President Joe Biden approved updated nuclear strategy guidance earlier in 2024.

At a Glance

  • President Biden reportedly approved a highly classified nuclear strategic plan in March 2024.
  • The New York Times reported that the plan reorients America’s deterrent strategy to focus on China’s rapid nuclear arsenal expansion.
  • The Pentagon believes China’s nuclear stockpiles will rival those of the U.S. and Russia within the next decade.
  • A White House representative has stated the updated guidance is not a response to any particular threat.

Biden’s Nuclear Strategy

The “Nuclear Employment Guidance,” approved by President Biden in March 2024, is a highly classified document, updated approximately every four years. Only a few hard copies exist. The New York Times reported that Biden’s recent update marks a significant shift in the U.S.’ deterrence strategy, focusing on addressing the rapid expansion of China’s nuclear arsenal. The report suggested the strategy aims to prepare the U.S. for potential nuclear confrontations from Chinese advancements, along with threats from other nations like North Korea and Russia.

The Pentagon projects that China’s nuclear stockpiles could rival those of the U.S. and Russia within the next decade. The strategy reportedly includes contingencies for possible coordinated nuclear challenges from China, Russia, and North Korea.

China’s Response

China has expressed significant concern over Biden’s nuclear strategy. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning stated that China maintains its nuclear arsenal at a minimal level for national security. Despite these assurances, the Chinese government has not disclosed the exact size of its nuclear forces. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) estimates China possesses around 500 warheads, with U.S. military projections indicating the potential for over 1,000 by 2030.

“China is seriously concerned about the relevant report,” said Mao Ning at a recent press conference.

Mao claimed the U.S. is the “creator of the world’s largest strategic risk of nuclear threat” due to its first-use policy and upgrades to its nuclear triad. China’s President Xi Jinping has ordered the acceleration of strategic deterrence forces development in response to perceived threats from the U.S.

Strategic Implications and Future Steps

The specific text of the Guidance remains classified, but a more detailed, unclassified notification to Congress is expected before Biden leaves office. According to White House spokesperson Sean Savett, however, the Guidance is not a response to any single entity or threat, despite The New York Times’ indication that China was the main focus.

“The specific text of the guidance is classified,” Savett said, but “its existence is in no way secret. The guidance issued earlier this year is not a response to any single entity, country, nor threat.”

Russia, holding approximately 4,000 nuclear warheads, remains a significant concern alongside China. The expiration of the New START treaty with Russia in early 2026, without a new agreement in place, further complicates the global nuclear landscape. The Arms Control Association asserts that despite these changes, U.S. nuclear strategy fundamentally remains as outlined in the 2022 Nuclear Posture Review.

Furthermore, Beijing has criticized the U.S. for provoking bloc confrontations and undermining regional peace and stability. China’s broader strategy includes a partnership with Russia, amplifying the strategic challenges for the U.S. administration. The U.S. Department of Defense’s annual report indicates China’s military will continue to grow until at least 2035.

Sources

  1. Biden Approved Secret Nuclear Strategy Refocusing on Chinese Threat
  2. Biden approves nuclear strategy refocusing on China threat – report
  3. China Responds to Top-Secret US Nuclear War Strategy

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