Trump Gains Razor Thin Lead on Harris in RealClearPolitics National Average

Donald Trump has overtaken Kamala Harris in the RealClearPolitics national poll average for the first time since Harris became the Democratic nominee.

At a Glance

Trump leads Harris by 0.1 points in the RealClearPolitics national average.
RealClearPolitics shows Trump ahead in all seven key battleground states.
Other pollsters show a tight race, with some favoring Harris and others Trump.
Prediction markets and forecasts have been volatile, reflecting the close nature of the race.

Trump Takes Narrow Lead in National Polls

According to RealClearPolitics, Former President Donald Trump has surpassed Vice President Kamala Harris in national polling averages for the first time. As of October 26, the RealClearPolitics average shows Trump with a razor-thin lead of 0.1 percentage points, standing at 48.4% compared to Harris’s 48.3%.

This narrow margin underscores the extremely close nature of the race, with both candidates essentially tied on a national level. The lead has frequently changed hands in recent months, making it challenging to predict the eventual winner.

Battleground States Favor Trump

While the national picture remains tight, Trump appears to have an edge in key battleground states. RealClearPolitics indicates that Trump is currently leading in all seven crucial swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. This state-level advantage could prove decisive in the Electoral College.

“The closeness of the race bears repeating what has become something of a mantra here at 538 recently: A close race in the polls does not necessarily mean the outcome will be close,” notes G. Elliott Morris, highlighting the potential for divergence between popular vote and Electoral College results.

Based on current projections, RealClearPolitics forecasts Trump to win both the popular vote and the Electoral College, with a projected 312 electoral votes. However, other forecasters present a more mixed picture, some showing Harris with a slight national lead while still favoring Trump in the Electoral College.

Volatile Prediction Markets and Shifting Polls

The 2024 election season has been marked by volatility in prediction markets and frequent shifts in polling data. Data scientist Thomas Miller, who uses prediction markets to forecast the race, has observed significant swings. “In exactly one month, the forecast using the same model and PredictIt ‘investor pool’ underwent a complete reversal,” Miller noted, highlighting the difficult nature of the race.

Recent polls have shown mixed results. An ABC/Ipsos poll gives Harris a 51%-47% lead, while a CBS/YouGov survey shows her up by a single point at 50%-49%. Conversely, a CNBC survey and a Wall Street Journal poll both show Trump with a slight edge.

Challenges and Opportunities for Both Candidates

As the race tightens, both candidates face unique challenges and opportunities. Harris’s campaign has been temporarily boosted by critical statements about Trump from his former Chief of Staff, John F. Kelly. However, her close alignment with President Joe Biden’s policies and current economic perceptions pose potential hurdles.

Trump, on the other hand, benefits from strong support in key battleground states but continues to face controversy surrounding his previous term and ongoing legal challenges. The race remains fluid, with independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. potentially influencing the outcome, polling at 2% in a recent Wall Street Journal survey.

As the election draws nearer, both campaigns will likely intensify their efforts in swing states, where even small shifts in voter sentiment could prove decisive. With the race this close, turnout and last-minute developments could play a crucial role in determining the next President of the United States.